Offense may win games and defense may win championships, but when it comes to the NFL, it is scoring that sells. With the importance the passing game plays in today’s NFL, you could say that is especially true for passing touchdowns.
Some guys are, of course, better at it then others and some are better equipped for success (i.e., touchdowns) in the passing game. Then there are always some who throw more often because they need to.
So—who is going to throw the most this season? It should come as no surprise who Bovada.lv has listed as the top three candidates:
- 2020-2021 Player With Most Regular Season Passing TDs
- Russell Wilson (SEA) -230
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) +400
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) +400
- Tom Brady (TB) +1400
- Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +1600
- Josh Allen (BUF) +1800
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +2500
- Drew Brees (NO) +2000
- Deshaun Watson (HOU) +4000
- Justin Herbert (LAC) +5000
With 28 touchdowns through eight games, Russell Wilson is of course the favorite. He has had no fewer than two a game and has had 4+ in four games. If he can keep up the pace that he is on, he is going to record 50+ easy. With the trouble Seattle has keeping running backs happy, chances are good he will keep up that pace.
If he does not, Patrick Mahomes will have no trouble closing the gap even though he has played one additional and has three fewer (25). He has had 4+ in just three games this season, but he appears to be hitting his stride lately. In the last two games, he threw nine. A couple more games like that, and he will overtake Wilson.
Aaron Rodgers is just four back but unlike Mahoms, has only played in eight games so far. But he doesn’t have the weapons that Mahomes and Wilson have, so expecting him to overtake the lead may be unrealistic.
Tom Brady is too far to behind to catch up, and the Buccaneers offense is not consistent enough to make up the difference. The Titans are more likely to lean on the run game more going forward than pass, so don’t bank on him making up the difference (he’s got 19).
Mahomes and Rodgers are not too far behind, so it is entirely possible for them to catch up. But as for anyone else, they will need a few big games to catch up let alone have an honest shot. However, if there is anyone that could have a few explosive games and close the gap it’s Drew Brees or Deshaun Watson.
So—how should you bet?
Wilson is the safe bet, of course. With the injury issues the Seahawks have at running back and their terrible defense, chances are good Wilson will throw many more in the weeks to come. Mahomes would not be a bad bet, either. It would not be crazy to see him throw for 4+ touchdowns in most of his remaining games.
If you want a longshot, though, take Deshaun Watson. The Texans defense is terrible this year which means they will often be coming from behind. Because of that, much like Jameis Winston last year, the opportunity for him to close the gap is certainly there.