Before the season began, many people thought the NFC East could produce one if not two contenders—the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. No one expected anything of the New York Giants or Washington. That is pretty much what we have seen in the first month of the season.
Surprisingly, it is what we have seen out of the Cowboys and Eagles, too. Dallas has been the offensive juggernaut it was expected to be, but the defense has been historically bad—hence a 1-3 record. Philadelphia has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball as well, hence their 1-2-1 record.
With the Giants and Jets vying for winless seasons and the Cowboys and Eagles not looking too hot, DraftKings has posted an interesting prop bet for the NFC East:
- Number of Games Won by the Division Winner – Excluding Playoffs
- Over 8.5 -167
- Under 8.5 +137
With only 12 games left, Washington or the Giants would need to win nine of 12 to cover the over. It is probably safe to assume that it is not going to happen. Both would need such a dramatic and complete turnaround during the season to even have a shot.
The picture does not look much better for the Cowboys or Eagles. Both will need to win at least eight going forward, and it is not easy to make a case for either to do so. The Eagles notched their first win last week against a seriously depleted 49ers squad—and it was close.
Based on what we have seen, it is hard to see them beating the Steelers this week or the Ravens the week after. The Cowboys (2X) are a big maybe, but they should not have too much trouble against the Giants (2X).
If Cleveland can keep up their current level of play, the Eagles will lose that one, too. Despite Seattle’s defensive struggles, the Seahawks offense will overwhelm the Eagles D. The Packers and Saints are going to be hard to beat as well.
As for the Cardinals, it depends on what version of the Cardinals show up. That leaves their second game against Dallas and Washington to end the season.
So, at most, it looks like the Eagles are going to win (at most) six more games (Dallas x2, Giants X2, Cardinals, and Washington). Their current win total is set at 6.5 (over–+100; under– -121).
But when it comes to the Cowboys, it may be a little tougher to judge. The offense is mistake-prone and has been hit hard by injuries on the offensive line. However, the offense has still managed to produce at an incredible rate. So, you would think they could outscore many teams.
However, their defense has been so bad that will not always be the case. They should be able to notch a win against the Giants (2X), Washington (2X), and Eagles (2X). The Steelers and Ravens will beat them, and there is a good chance the Vikings will as well.
With the Cardinals, it depends on what version of the team shows up. The Bengals game could go either way if the defense does not get it together, and the same could be said for the 49ers contest.
So, at most, we are looking at anywhere from six (Eagles x2, Washington x2, Giants x2) to ten more wins (Bengals, 49ers, Vikings, Cardinals). Ten may be asking too much, though, from what we have seen. Eight may be the ceiling and six the floor.
So—how should you bet?
Based on what we have seen, the Cowboys are the best shot to cover the over. But it is hard to trust in them to stop anyone on offense. If you have to take something, take the over but don’t risk too much on this wager. There is way too much uncertainty here.